Thursday, May 10, 2012

New Short Trade - VAL:NYSE

In line with my bearish stance on the whole market/economy, I've entered a new short trade on Valspar (VAL:NYSE).   The stock has been in a strong uptrend since September 2011.   However, the price action appears to be weakening within a tightening rising wedge.   I've gone short this morning at the top of the rising wedge.   There is strong divergence between the price  (making higher highs) and the MACD indicator making lower lows.   Stochastics are oversold and the market has made a small bounce this morning.   By entering at the top of the wedge with a tight protective stop loss order, my first target (at R:RR of 1:1) lies just at the bottom trend line of the wedge, which means that could be achieved even if the pattern continues to hold and doesn't fail.   Should this be achieved, I will be looking for the second target to be just above the .382 Fibonacci level at $43 and the third target to be just above the .618 Fibonacci level at $37.

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