GBPUSD Re-entered short

So the GBP had a short spurt on the news of the PSNB being slightly reduced, which resulted in my stop being hit on my previous trade.   The market has "calmed" again now and I see nothing within the price action or my indicators to suggest any new strength.   I've therefore re-entered at a new level and will monitor the price action from here.

GBPUSD trade stopped out on news

My GBPUSD trade was stopped out this morning for a total profit of 125pips.

I'm watching for a re-entry but am waiting for a higher bounce.

Apparently the UK reduced it's Public Sector Net Borrowing to £15.6 billion form £19.9 billion and although that was not as big a reduction as was forecast.......it's still appears to be giving the £ a boost.

Update: EURGBP short trade

This Fibonacci funnel trade is making slow progress.  It had a false breakout during the course of today, highlighted by the orange circle, and has re-entered the funnel.

However, my stop loss is in place as well as my profit target so I will let the trade run it's course, in accordance with my strategy and money management plan.

Update: FTSE 100 short trade

his trade has progressed well and I have been trailing my stop all the way down (brown lines).

The price has made a lower low but the indicators are up (red lines) and this represents a bullish divergence.   I am therefore expecting a retrace against the trade but my stop is in place and I hope it won't be hit so that I can participate in the onwards ride down.

In any event this has been a nice trade and I've managed it well so I am a happy with that.

Update: GBPUSD short trade

This trade has progressed well and I have been trailing my stop all the way down (brown lines).

The price has made a lower low but the indicators are flat to up (red lines) and this represents a bullish divergence.   I am therefore expecting a retrace against the trade but my stop is in place and I hope it won't be hit so that I can participate in the onwards ride down.

In any event this has been a nice trade and I've managed it well so I am a happy with that.

Update - ABF:LSE

My ABF:LSE Short trade is not going my way despite a 200 point drop in the FTSE index over the past two days.

I don't normally read any of the fundamentalist/analyst rubbish that is published but a press release on my broker's site today caught my eye as it was headed "ABF upgraded by UBS".   Apparently UBS is recommending the company to it's clients.

This encourages me to stay short!

As you can see from the chart my original pattern is still intact and there is a new, much steeper rising wedge within the larger pattern.......I therefore stay short....and wait

New Short Trade EUR/GBP

I took a new trade on the EUR/GBP pair shortly after the market opened last night(Sunday).   The pattern is a volatility funnel.

The chart shows the funnel and the thin green line shows my traditional entry point.

However, I often take what I call an "early entry" trade and this I what I have done here.   The entry was just after the price action appeared to have made a clear high to form the funnel.   Obviously, this is a higher risk entry than waiting for the break (or a second chance entry), but it often works well and increases the R:RR dramatically as it means your stop (red highlight) is much closer to entry but the target (green highlight) is the same as if it were a traditional entry.

GBP/USD Update

My GBP/USD Short Trade has made good progress downward.


The price action appears to be forming a bear flag pattern.   There will always be retraces in any trend on whatever time frame....It's all part of trade monitoring and management.



I've moved my stop to a guaranteed profit position just above the round number of 1.5650 and  my profit target down to just above the 1.5500 level.


I am holding the trade open for further downside pressure and I will monitor the price action throughout the day and move my stop order as appropriate.   Depending upon how the price action develops I may move my target too but as today is Friday I will probably close out the position before the FX market closes this evening as I don't like leaving profitable trades open over the weekend

FTSE 100 Short Trade - Update

My FTSE 100 Short Trade has made good progress downward.

The price action appears to be forming a bear flag pattern.   There will always be retraces in any trend on whatever time frame....It's all part of trade monitoring and management.

I've moved my stop to a guaranteed profit position just above the round number of 5550 and my profit target down to just above the 5300 level....yes....all the way down there!  My target price comes from the channel which the price has formed..but has yet to break....If the price action at the channel level appears to be resisting too much, I will close the trade at the bottom of the channel instead.

New short trade on GBP/USD

I took a new short trade on the GBP/USD pair yesterday just before I went to play golf....hence the late post.

You can see my entry point on the chart together with my stopp loss and limit order levels.

Note the direction of the indicators....all downward....

The first important level will be 1.5665 and the second 1.5600....I am expecting resistance at both these levels..but if broken the next level would be around the 1.5550, before heading down to my target.

Another short trade on FTSE

The markets appear to have digested the FOMC meeting and minutes and I don't think they got what they were looking for.......

I re-entered another short trade on FTSE 100 at lunch time today.  You can see the indicators confirming the downward pressure on the price and I'm hoping this will translate in to downward price action.

I will monitor the price throughout the afternoon and may move my target downwards, depending upon the price action.

FTSE Short Trade

My FTSE short trade has been stopped out for a full loss trade.

Ben's helicopter effect I think!

New FTSE Short Trade

The market gapped up again this morning and I've just gone short the FTSE100 cfd.

It's a very short time frame setup and my stop and targets are as shown.  MY stop is just above the 1.272 Fibonacci extension on the previous swing and targets are at R:RR of 1:1 and 2:1 respectively.

Note the bearish divergence between price and indicators as highlighted by my orange lines.

A light hearted look

FTSE Short Trade Target met!

My early morning FTSE short trade has reached it's downside target and is now closed.

50 pips in 48 minutes!

ABF:LSE - Short Trade doubled in size

As I suspected on Friday, the price action on ABF:LSE has tested the underside of the original rising wedge which got me short.   This is often what happens with these patterns and I sometimes wait for it to do so before re-entering.  This is at the same level as the .786 Fibonacci retracement of the previous swing.

This pattern has been profitable but did not reach my target and I'm currently under water with it.

Given the apparent euphoria in the markets over the fact that Greece isn't going bust (yet)...I've doubled up on my size which gives me a higher average holding price and that enables me to move my profit target higher, in accordance with my startegy.

I will monitor the price action and close the trade when the new revised target is met.

Markets celebrate!...Hello?..I'm short the FTSE

So this morning the market is celebrating the fact that Greece is not going to go bust this week!   The result

At one point the FTSE 100 was up around 10%.

I've gone short the index simply because nothing has changed soince Friday....OK...the Greek vote went the way the world politicians wanted.....but..hey ho...what do that do for the UK economy!....ZILCH!

The result of the Greek election gives the pro-austerity conservative and socialist parties enough votes to form a fragile and awkward ruling coalition!

Oh and by the way......also at the weekend elections the French Socialist party won a commanding parliamentary majority, giving President Hollande the power to tax and spend to his heart's desire.........

FTSE Short trade closed for a small profit

I had to leave my desk for a couple of hours this morning and as the price had fallen below the previous low (bottom mauve line), I moved my stop into the middle of the funnel which guaranteed me a small profit.

I was stopped out and, of course, the market has dropped a little further since then.

However, always keep in mind:-
Rule 1 of trading - Don't lose money
Rule 2 of  trading - Don't lose money
Rule 3 of trading - Apply rules 1 & 2

And.....a profit is not a profit until it is banked!

I am watching for another entry at the top of the funnel if the opportunity arises.

AUD/NZD closed for a profit...BUT!

My NZD/USD trade closed for a profit last night, after the Governor of the RNBZ made his statement.

However, the market was fairly volatile during his speech, and whilst my profit target was hit....the spike which did so was so rapid, that my profit take order did not get filled.   Fortunately I was watching the price action whilst the Governor spoke and I was able to take a "manual" profit.

This is a very frustrating thing to deal with in the market...but it happens from time to time...and we just have to learn to deal with it and move on.

There is always the consolation that my strategy was correct...and as I placed my orders correctly, there is nothing more that I could have done...a well spotted and executed trade that just didn't work out as well (financially) as it should have.

Note that my indicators were showing a bearish divergence with price all the way from my entry point to the red vertical line which is when the price began to fall.

ABF Update

It seems like the overhead resistance i referred to yesterday has helped this trade.  The price appears to be retreating and continuing within the downward channel.

Note the divergence between price and volume....higher prices with flat or lower volume are often a sign of lower prices to come.

I hope so!

New short trade FTSE 100

I've spotted a potential Fibonacci funnel setting up on the FTSE100 cfd.   I've taken an earlier entry than normal.

The benefit of this is that it reduces my risk by some 35 points....and of course, would increase my R:RR significantly if the trade is successful.

However, the downside is that by taking the entry early, I could be wrong in my view that this will be a Fibonacci funnel...only time will tell.

Why it pays to be a swing trader.....not a position investor

 
I always approach my trading as a swing trader; not a position investor. For me, preservation of capital rules above all else.

To illustrate the dangers of position (long-term buy-and-hold) investing, I read today that Anthony Bolton, the famed Fidelity fund manager, has managed to lose over 24% in his China fund in the past year.

I don’t know about you, but this type of investing just doesn’t appeal to me. It is all very well saying – or more honestly, praying – that it will do well in the future. But that smacks of rationalisation to save face. 

In truth, no-one knows what a fund – or any financial market – will do in the future with anything approaching certainty. It could go down 50% or more. It could double.

My point is that a loss is a loss, and any investor who puts their faith – and it is faith – in a star manager, is in a state of denial when faced with this reality. 

The pain in Spain.....and Greece...and Italy...and Portugal...and...

Whilst I am the first to acknowledge that, as a trader, I must accept that the market is always right, there are times when I can't help wondering if the rest of the world is seeing something that I am not not!

There is so much financial trouble in the Eurozone...and in the USA...that to me, it is almost inconceivable that the markets can rise and take out previous highs.....but the bulls are still in there, fighting hard and it's a case of "wait and see" who wins the battle.

I, for one, will not be joining the bullish camp until my charts, patterns and indicators tell me to do so....until then..I'm staying on the short side.

New short trade NZD/USD

I have entered a new short trade today on the NZD/USD pair.

The price has been in a rising uptrend for most of June and is currently running along the mid line.   However, my indicators are showing a bearish divergence and the price is approaching the round number of 0.7800.

The Bank of New Zealand issues it's Official Cash Rate and, more importantly, it's press conference and rate statement at 10p UK time tonight and this may produce some volatility in the price action and of course this could stop me out.

However, It is often the case that my indicators lead the price action so I'm banking on the bearish divergence.

The daily chart on this pair is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern with a long term potential downside target at around the 0.600 level, depending upon if and when it breaks through the neckline

ABF - Update

During the course of my "absence", my ABF trade has been into a profitable position but didn't hit my first profit take level.

The trade has now gone against me and I also suffered a bullish divergence against the trade as highlighted by the orange lines.

However, my trade is still running in accordance with my money management strategy and I am now hoping for some strong price resistance as indicated on the chart.

Back from my European Tour

So..I'm safely back from my European motorcycling tour...great roads....mountain passes...some sunshine and, as ever, lots of rain!

2,200 miles and 9 countries in 9 days!

If you are into motorbiking, the Alps are a fantastic place to ride!