GBPUSD Re-entered short

So the GBP had a short spurt on the news of the PSNB being slightly reduced, which resulted in my stop being hit on my previous trade.   The market has "calmed" again now and I see nothing within the price action or my indicators to suggest any new strength.   I've therefore re-entered at a new level and will monitor the price action from here.

GBPUSD trade stopped out on news

My GBPUSD trade was stopped out this morning for a total profit of 125pips.

I'm watching for a re-entry but am waiting for a higher bounce.

Apparently the UK reduced it's Public Sector Net Borrowing to £15.6 billion form £19.9 billion and although that was not as big a reduction as was forecast.......it's still appears to be giving the £ a boost.

Update: FTSE 100 short trade

his trade has progressed well and I have been trailing my stop all the way down (brown lines).

The price has made a lower low but the indicators are up (red lines) and this represents a bullish divergence.   I am therefore expecting a retrace against the trade but my stop is in place and I hope it won't be hit so that I can participate in the onwards ride down.

In any event this has been a nice trade and I've managed it well so I am a happy with that.

Update: GBPUSD short trade

This trade has progressed well and I have been trailing my stop all the way down (brown lines).

The price has made a lower low but the indicators are flat to up (red lines) and this represents a bullish divergence.   I am therefore expecting a retrace against the trade but my stop is in place and I hope it won't be hit so that I can participate in the onwards ride down.

In any event this has been a nice trade and I've managed it well so I am a happy with that.

Update - ABF:LSE

My ABF:LSE Short trade is not going my way despite a 200 point drop in the FTSE index over the past two days.

I don't normally read any of the fundamentalist/analyst rubbish that is published but a press release on my broker's site today caught my eye as it was headed "ABF upgraded by UBS".   Apparently UBS is recommending the company to it's clients.

This encourages me to stay short!

As you can see from the chart my original pattern is still intact and there is a new, much steeper rising wedge within the larger pattern.......I therefore stay short....and wait

GBP/USD Update

My GBP/USD Short Trade has made good progress downward.


The price action appears to be forming a bear flag pattern.   There will always be retraces in any trend on whatever time frame....It's all part of trade monitoring and management.



I've moved my stop to a guaranteed profit position just above the round number of 1.5650 and  my profit target down to just above the 1.5500 level.


I am holding the trade open for further downside pressure and I will monitor the price action throughout the day and move my stop order as appropriate.   Depending upon how the price action develops I may move my target too but as today is Friday I will probably close out the position before the FX market closes this evening as I don't like leaving profitable trades open over the weekend

FTSE 100 Short Trade - Update

My FTSE 100 Short Trade has made good progress downward.

The price action appears to be forming a bear flag pattern.   There will always be retraces in any trend on whatever time frame....It's all part of trade monitoring and management.

I've moved my stop to a guaranteed profit position just above the round number of 5550 and my profit target down to just above the 5300 level....yes....all the way down there!  My target price comes from the channel which the price has formed..but has yet to break....If the price action at the channel level appears to be resisting too much, I will close the trade at the bottom of the channel instead.

New short trade on GBP/USD

I took a new short trade on the GBP/USD pair yesterday just before I went to play golf....hence the late post.

You can see my entry point on the chart together with my stopp loss and limit order levels.

Note the direction of the indicators....all downward....

The first important level will be 1.5665 and the second 1.5600....I am expecting resistance at both these levels..but if broken the next level would be around the 1.5550, before heading down to my target.

ABF:LSE - Short Trade doubled in size

As I suspected on Friday, the price action on ABF:LSE has tested the underside of the original rising wedge which got me short.   This is often what happens with these patterns and I sometimes wait for it to do so before re-entering.  This is at the same level as the .786 Fibonacci retracement of the previous swing.

This pattern has been profitable but did not reach my target and I'm currently under water with it.

Given the apparent euphoria in the markets over the fact that Greece isn't going bust (yet)...I've doubled up on my size which gives me a higher average holding price and that enables me to move my profit target higher, in accordance with my startegy.

I will monitor the price action and close the trade when the new revised target is met.

AUD/NZD closed for a profit...BUT!

My NZD/USD trade closed for a profit last night, after the Governor of the RNBZ made his statement.

However, the market was fairly volatile during his speech, and whilst my profit target was hit....the spike which did so was so rapid, that my profit take order did not get filled.   Fortunately I was watching the price action whilst the Governor spoke and I was able to take a "manual" profit.

This is a very frustrating thing to deal with in the market...but it happens from time to time...and we just have to learn to deal with it and move on.

There is always the consolation that my strategy was correct...and as I placed my orders correctly, there is nothing more that I could have done...a well spotted and executed trade that just didn't work out as well (financially) as it should have.

Note that my indicators were showing a bearish divergence with price all the way from my entry point to the red vertical line which is when the price began to fall.

ABF Update

It seems like the overhead resistance i referred to yesterday has helped this trade.  The price appears to be retreating and continuing within the downward channel.

Note the divergence between price and volume....higher prices with flat or lower volume are often a sign of lower prices to come.

I hope so!

New short trade NZD/USD

I have entered a new short trade today on the NZD/USD pair.

The price has been in a rising uptrend for most of June and is currently running along the mid line.   However, my indicators are showing a bearish divergence and the price is approaching the round number of 0.7800.

The Bank of New Zealand issues it's Official Cash Rate and, more importantly, it's press conference and rate statement at 10p UK time tonight and this may produce some volatility in the price action and of course this could stop me out.

However, It is often the case that my indicators lead the price action so I'm banking on the bearish divergence.

The daily chart on this pair is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern with a long term potential downside target at around the 0.600 level, depending upon if and when it breaks through the neckline

ABF - Update

During the course of my "absence", my ABF trade has been into a profitable position but didn't hit my first profit take level.

The trade has now gone against me and I also suffered a bullish divergence against the trade as highlighted by the orange lines.

However, my trade is still running in accordance with my money management strategy and I am now hoping for some strong price resistance as indicated on the chart.

Back from my European Tour

So..I'm safely back from my European motorcycling tour...great roads....mountain passes...some sunshine and, as ever, lots of rain!

2,200 miles and 9 countries in 9 days!

If you are into motorbiking, the Alps are a fantastic place to ride!

ABF: Update

My ABF:LSE short trade has made some downward progress and I am going away tomorrow for a week.  The price appears to be "bear flagging" and the indicators are all heading south.  I have therefore decided to leave this trade running as I can't see any reason to take my profit now.

I will be alerted if the price hits my first target and I will then sell half of my holding, move the stop to break even and run the remainder in the hope that my second target will be reached.

In the meantime, my protective stop is in place.

FTSE Short Trade closed for a profit

I have closed my FTSE short trade for a profit.  It was a little frustrating as it made two attempts to break down big time...and failed.   I had trailed my stop and was stopped out as you can see o the chart.  However a R:RR o 1:1 in 24 hours is very acceptable!

ABF:LSE Brief update

Whilst I do not expect this trade to make rapid progress, it has already made a little progress to the down side.   The price action appears to be forming a "bear flag" pattern which I'd like to see breaking to the down side.

New short term trade - FTSE 100 short

I've taken a new short trade today on the hourly chart of the FTSE100 CFD.

The price has been trending down since 1st May and has formed a pattern within a pattern.

The first pattern is an inverted version of "Fibonacci Funnel" which is highlighted by the green lines.   This is a bearish pattern.   The second pattern is an ascending triangle (blue lines) which is normally a bullish pattern.   However, it has just broken to the downside and I take that as being bearish too.

Furthermore, there is a bearish divergence (purple lines) which adds to my edge.

The price may retreat into the funnel or up to the lower trend line of the triangle for a re-test (which is a common occurrence) before continuing it's downward trend...........but then again it may not!

In any event, my protective stop and profit take orders are in place.

New Short Trade - ABF:LSE

I have entered a new short trade today on Associated British Foods (ABF:LSE).   The monthly chart shows prices making all time highs last month and dropping off slightly this month.   However, the indicators all show bearish divergence to the price and the price does not appear to be sustainable at current levels.

The daily chart shows a bearish rising wedge formation and I've entered short just as the price re-tests the lower trend line.   The price has just made it's first lower low after what can be described as a substantial uptrend spanning from August 2011 through to April 2012.   I'm looking for a pull back.

My stop is just above the rising wedge upper trend line and for this to be hit, the price needs to make a new all time high.   My first profit target will be at the 1:1 risk to reward ratio and I will monitor the price action as time progresses.

CPI:LSE - Hits target

MY short trade on CPI:LSE has paid me off handsomely this morning.  The price gapped down at the open....and I was filled below my profit target level which gave me an added bonus.   Gaps can work with you and against you and in this case it was in my favour.   The original down channel pattern was violated and the price came within 2 pips of my stop level.   However, my momentum indicators always appeared to "not be supporting the price action" and this has now proved to be the case.