Saturday, March 03, 2012

Vodafone : - VOD:LSE

I took a long position in Vodafone on Friday.   Vodafone has been creating a volatility funnel since Sept 2007 and there is another volatility funnel forming on the daily chart.  This is the pattern I am trading.   However, instead of taking a traditional breakout entry at the top of the spout part of the  funnel, I have taken an entry at what I hope is the bottom on the spout.   This, of course, is a higher risk entry but it also increases the reward to risk ratio dramatically if it works out.   My risk is 6% of the entry price or 10p per share.

When I take this lower entry, I always place my stop just below the bottom of the previous swing low, in case the funnel spout has not actually formed yet and my entry was premature.   At the bottom of the previous swing low I would want to be out of the trade in any event.

I am encouraged to take this trade by the following:-
1).  Volatility funnel on weekly chart with the smaller volatility funnel on the daily chart.
2).   There is a bullish divergence between my stochastic indicator and the price.(red line) and a second converging cross of the oversold line
3).   There is a bullish divergence between my macd indicator and the price. (red line)
4).   The 200 ma  has been moving slightly upwards since 7th Feb, appears to be supporting the price and is sitting in between the .618 and .786 fib ratios.
5).   A candlestick tweezer bottom was made on the previous two days and the price has rejected that same level again.



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